Trevor Shackles: Erik Karlsson and the dangers of confirmation bias Erik Karlsson seemed to have a down year, but did it only seem bad because we were attentively looking for his mistakes?

Excellent article. It's amazing how much the average hockey fan let's the media shape their ideals.

Agreed, he was decent. Btw, Karlsson had a bad start? Didn't he have like 14 points in his first 10 games (I could be wrong??). Hopefully Anderson can turn it around this season otherwise it's gonna be another painful year. Condon as a back-up is fine, but he sees too many minutes.

Agreed, he was decent. Btw, Karlsson had a bad start? Didn't he have like 14 points in his first 10 games (I could be wrong??). Hopefully Anderson can turn it around this season otherwise it's gonna be another painful year. Condon as a back-up is fine, but he sees too many minutes.
- DutchSenators

You're right, he did have that kind of start for points. Although at points his skating looked a bit off and he was slower.

Here’s the thing with Ek. Blaming the goalie is par for the course but stupid. Goalies are the last line of defence.

EK is a damn good offencive defensemen, one of the best. Eras aside yes akin to Orr.

That said he IS breaking down. Foot injuries have reduced his speed. Often he was able to skate clear of trouble. Last season he couldn’t and lead to turnovers that yes wound up in the back of the net. All the goalies fault? NO

EK has taken long shifts, always has. His skating allowed him to. With that gone he was exposed all the more. There’s no sugar coating it. He was beyond a luability, screwing up match ups and coughing it up.

Now the real question is was this an anomoly due to the i juries and he rights himself, or does he need to change his game entirely to fit the new slower reality?!

The GM also needs to shore up the D and get EK a stay at home partner they can rely on to help him more. And also the goalies.

Ottawa also has to figure out their enigmatic owner. Will he pay for keeping EK or let him go.

He is a fan favorite and good guy BUT is Ottawa rebuilding, is EK going to bounce back, and will the owner pony up or not are all the real questions at this point IMO.

So true, if they can find a solid stay at home D to facilitate that roll and the goalies stop some pucks this team should be fighting for a playoff spot.

Here’s the thing with Ek. Blaming the goalie is par for the course but stupid. Goalies are the last line of defence.

EK is a damn good offencive defensemen, one of the best. Eras aside yes akin to Orr.

That said he IS breaking down. Foot injuries have reduced his speed. Often he was able to skate clear of trouble. Last season he couldn’t and lead to turnovers that yes wound up in the back of the net. All the goalies fault? NO

EK has taken long shifts, always has. His skating allowed him to. With that gone he was exposed all the more. There’s no sugar coating it. He was beyond a luability, screwing up match ups and coughing it up.

Now the real question is was this an anomoly due to the i juries and he rights himself, or does he need to change his game entirely to fit the new slower reality?!

The GM also needs to shore up the D and get EK a stay at home partner they can rely on to help him more. And also the goalies.

Ottawa also has to figure out their enigmatic owner. Will he pay for keeping EK or let him go.

He is a fan favorite and good guy BUT is Ottawa rebuilding, is EK going to bounce back, and will the owner pony up or not are all the real questions at this point IMO.
- Roadrunner75

True, but even Doughty would struggle with a pylon next to him. He just needs more support and Chabot is not the answer (yet). I would be interested to see how a cheap player like Cole or CDH would do next to Karlsson.

Karlsson one a 1 yr deal will not give us a treasure trove of assets. I hope we sign him, also good for the tickets.

Here’s the thing with Ek. Blaming the goalie is par for the course but stupid. Goalies are the last line of defence.

EK is a damn good offencive defensemen, one of the best. Eras aside yes akin to Orr.

That said he IS breaking down. Foot injuries have reduced his speed. Often he was able to skate clear of trouble. Last season he couldn’t and lead to turnovers that yes wound up in the back of the net. All the goalies fault? NO

EK has taken long shifts, always has. His skating allowed him to. With that gone he was exposed all the more. There’s no sugar coating it. He was beyond a luability, screwing up match ups and coughing it up.

Now the real question is was this an anomoly due to the i juries and he rights himself, or does he need to change his game entirely to fit the new slower reality?!

The GM also needs to shore up the D and get EK a stay at home partner they can rely on to help him more. And also the goalies.

Ottawa also has to figure out their enigmatic owner. Will he pay for keeping EK or let him go.

He is a fan favorite and good guy BUT is Ottawa rebuilding, is EK going to bounce back, and will the owner pony up or not are all the real questions at this point IMO.
- Roadrunner75

Did you watch him after January? His speed was back and he looked fully recovered. A bit ridiculous to think that he's on the decline

This business about showing the SV% for players on the ice is naive in my opinion. Can that result be caused by players on the ice as it is a lot of the time, or is the goalie getting all the heat? Where do you show the difference if it's a soft goal that should have been saved or a player shooting at an open net due to the disaster that was trying to defend? There was a similar blog about Letang with the author basically putting a lot of the blame on the goalie due to the poor SV%. I think that's just wrong. Can a goalie put the blame on the clown show in front of him in certain games?

Until each goal gets broken down in minute detail it's just guessing.

That's a good point and I think the answer lies somewhere in between, which is why on ice sv% needs to be combined with a stat like high danger shot%, and unless the two stats are both bad, then they are both not likely tied together. (For example not sure about the Letang situation, but if Karlsson was in the top 25% of preventing good scoring chances, but bottom 1% of the league in save %, then the goalies have to wear a good portion of that.

No surprise:

Alfie wants Melynk out too
https://www.tsn.ca/alfred...get-a-new-owner-1.1096452

I dont think any tv. Radio. Social media anylist would rate 65 less then a top 10 player in the league. The mob will always be fickle day to day. The big question is not dollars but length.

Anyone notice that Karlssons highest save percentage numbers were when he was paired with Marc Methot? Before Methot average Id dare say, with Methot above average, after Methot terrible. Coincidene? I think not. Seems pretty clear to me that maybe hes not nearly as good as everyone thinks he is.

Anyone notice that Karlssons highest save percentage numbers were when he was paired with Marc Methot? Before Methot average Id dare say, with Methot above average, after Methot terrible. Coincidene? I think not. Seems pretty clear to me that maybe hes not nearly as good as everyone thinks he is.
- Liamace

That's pure and utter BullS*it

The team lost Methot for NOTHING.
Chabot is barely scratching the surface and the brought in grandpa Oduya to solve the issue. Melynk went cheap like he always wants and Ceci didn't progress. Karlsson had major surgery, no training camp (which I blame the team and partly himself for underestimating that).

If you ask me RIGHT NOW - Erik Karlsson is without question in the top 15 of MVP - I have him in my top 10 without question:

Ovechkin, Malkin, Karlsson, P. Kane, McDavid, Crosby, Price, Kurcherov, Kopitar, Mackinnon* is rising

Did you watch him after January? His speed was back and he looked fully recovered. A bit ridiculous to think that he's on the decline

People love to say great players are spent. They did it to Crosby, Ovechkin, Price...any off year/slump and they're done. It's been said enough here, but great defensemen almost always have a reliable partner. Yeah Ek was hurt to start the season, but he had also just lost Methot.

Anyone notice that Karlssons highest save percentage numbers were when he was paired with Marc Methot? Before Methot average Id dare say, with Methot above average, after Methot terrible. Coincidene? I think not. Seems pretty clear to me that maybe hes not nearly as good as everyone thinks he is.
- Liamace

Look at the season that Methot had in Dallas, it wasn't great. Karlsson just had Anderson be great for a few seasons, and he wasn't this year. Methot was solid, but Karlsson has made freaking Filip Kuba look great.

Look at the season that Methot had in Dallas, it wasn't great. Karlsson just had Anderson be great for a few seasons, and he wasn't this year. Methot was solid, but Karlsson has made freaking Filip Kuba look great.
- Trevor Shackles

10 +years ago . I do believe he had better years with Tampa previously.
We can all agree 65 is a all star. No debate

No surprise:

Alfie wants Melynk out too
https://www.tsn.ca/alfred...get-a-new-owner-1.1096452

Good luck getting future interviews with anyone related to the Ottawa Senators. Relying on the technicality is unprofessional and career limiting.

Good luck getting future interviews with anyone related to the Ottawa Senators. Relying on the technicality is unprofessional and career limiting.
- AlfieFever

Sherring is an idiot for reporting what everybody already knew anyway. Eugene Melnyk is becoming a huge ugly sore for the NHL.

I believe the framework of a deal is in place. I think we are going to see strong local ownership. I also think that a major European entity will become a part of the overall corporate structure.

Melnyk is doing his best to squeeze the last dollar out of the deal and the pennies he is saving on front office expenses are chicken feed leading up to the ownership transition.

Melnyk may take one more stab trying to skim more off the bottom of a sale but the inevitable outcome is coming.

With new ownership Karlsson resigns for 8 years at $84m.

Sherring is an idiot for reporting what everybody already knew anyway. Eugene Melnyk is becoming a huge ugly sore for the NHL.
- BINGO!

wtf, when are people so worried about the reporters here?

I'm happy she wrote this - it's type people realize the second part of your statement.

The guy's a cheap billionaire

I believe the framework of a deal is in place. I think we are going to see strong local ownership. I also think that a major European entity will become a part of the overall corporate structure.

Melnyk is doing his best to squeeze the last dollar out of the deal and the pennies he is saving on front office expenses are chicken feed leading up to the ownership transition.

Melnyk may take one more stab trying to skim more off the bottom of a sale but the inevitable outcome is coming.

With new ownership Karlsson resigns for 8 years at $84m.
- spatso

That's exactly the deal that makes sense

I believe the framework of a deal is in place. I think we are going to see strong local ownership. I also think that a major European entity will become a part of the overall corporate structure.

Melnyk is doing his best to squeeze the last dollar out of the deal and the pennies he is saving on front office expenses are chicken feed leading up to the ownership transition.

Melnyk may take one more stab trying to skim more off the bottom of a sale but the inevitable outcome is coming.

With new ownership Karlsson resigns for 8 years at $84m.
- spatso

"Strong local ownership" sounds like an oxymoron. Any uber-rich people in Ottawa?

"Strong local ownership" sounds like an oxymoron. Any uber-rich people in Ottawa?
- AlfieFever

Yes. There is lots of money in Ottawa.

"Strong local ownership" sounds like an oxymoron. Any uber-rich people in Ottawa?
- AlfieFever

Plenty. Get Michael Cowpland on the phone, or some of the high rollers from Nortel.